When Brexit became the law of the land in the UK, financial analysts were aghast at the news.
The result, which saw the Bank of England announce it would hold off a rate cut until mid-2020, was a complete shock.
As the UK government warned in a speech in May, the Bank’s independence was in jeopardy.
It was only the second time since the early days of the global financial crisis that the British central bank had not taken a rate hike.
In the run-up to the vote, analysts were told the UK would face a Brexit-style shock and that the government would need to act.
They were told to expect a hard Brexit.
And they were right.
Brexit was the shock of a lifetime.
But the political fallout from the shock has been swift.
The Bank has been called out by a number of political parties, including the Conservatives, who have warned that the economic fallout from Brexit could be worse than they realised.
This is the third time in a row the British government has been forced to backtrack on a key decision made by the Bank.
It has made some mistakes, but it has done so with a sense of purpose.
A central plank of the British establishment’s argument that Brexit will hurt the economy is that the UK has lost the competitive edge that it had enjoyed in the EU and the US.
Brexit has brought new markets and the chance to develop new businesses and products, which the Bank has argued will drive down the cost of borrowing.
But economists argue that the Bank had not made its most important decision on its own.
The UK economy was not yet fully developed.
It lacked sufficient capacity to absorb shocks.
The economic impact of Brexit has not been felt until 2019.
Now that the uncertainty is over, what will the impact of this be?
The UK will need to invest in its future to maintain a competitive edge over the rest of the world, says Professor Andrew Goodwin, director of the Centre for Business Policy Research at the University of Oxford.
The Government should focus on what it can do for the UK and the EU, he says.
There are several different ways the Government can tackle the fallout from a Brexit, Goodwin says.
One is to offer more certainty to businesses.
This could mean providing certainty for their ability to borrow, invest and trade.
Another is to increase the size of the Bank, which has been the biggest drag on the UK economy in recent years.
In 2018, the UK became the first country to use a fixed-rate mortgage to fund a home.
The current policy of paying interest on deposits rather than interest on income is an important tool for the economy to cope with the uncertainty.
Goodwin believes the Government will use this as a lever to persuade businesses to take the lead in helping the UK remain competitive.
There is a third option.
The government could take the UK out of the EU single market.
The EU has been in the process of negotiating the most ambitious deal for the entire 28-nation bloc in decades, and Brexit would have a huge impact on the relationship.
Brexit would create a new customs union and the free movement of people, goods and services.
This would be the biggest change in the single market since the 1960s, when it opened the door to millions of people fleeing persecution in the former Soviet Union.
In 2019, the European Commission estimated that there would be a 50% increase in the cost to the UK of importing goods and that this would result in a 50,000% increase of imports to the country from other EU countries.
Goodwin says this would have devastating effects on the manufacturing sector, which employs over 2 million people.
“It would be one of the biggest economic shocks of the 21st century,” he says, pointing to the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs, particularly in the services sector.
The biggest risk for the rest, Goodwin adds, is that it could leave Britain with no overall control over its economy and the financial services sector, such as insurance, financial services and the insurance industry.
There will be no one to blame for this, Goodwin believes, because the British people are just too trusting of the politicians who have led them to believe that they have been dealt a fair deal.
This has not turned out to be the case, and Goodwin says the uncertainty will only grow as the uncertainty over Brexit intensifies.
This article originally appeared on TalkSport.
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